Assessing the risk to a business model is only possible when it is tested. Multiple tools are recommended to undertake a stress test. One of the tools that I use is Pestle. If I were to apply that test to Netflix, I note that the biggest risk for Netflix is legal. It will probably also be true for other competitors like Disney, Amazon, and others.
Let me expand on this risk a bit.
All these platforms constantly look for content that will keep consumers coming back for more to their platform. Content that is great and acceptable in a jurisdiction may be regarded as inappropriate or offensive by another.
Now that nearly all of these platforms are operating internationally, they have to contend with a host of different regulations. A regulator in a jurisdiction may regard content to be not right for the audience. It then could potentially ban the platform from operating in that jurisdiction.
It is a tough ask for any platform to create content that is universally accepted across the globe. Mitigation of that risk can be done successfully by the use of technology. Tweaking algorithms could assist in making offending content well nigh inaccessible to viewers in a particular jurisdiction.
From the business strategy standpoint, I think Netflix and other competitors are rapidly moving towards strategic convergence. Strategic convergence will make it difficult for a platform to secure a competitive advantage over the other. We are already seeing signs of this. Consumers will settle for those platforms that they are comfortable with. Viewership will get divided, and business stasis is likely to emerge.
Strategic convergence is a major risk to Netflix and others.