Climate change is impacting NENA Food Security. The North East North Africa (NENA) region is particularly vulnerable.

The Food and agriculture Organization lists the NENA (North East North Africa) Member States as Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Gaza and the West Bank, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Somalia, Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, Turkey, and Yemen; and five non-borrowing countries: Kuwait, the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The NENA region is unique in many ways:

1. Several countries (Gaza and the West Bank, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia) are active conflict zones or have been a theatre of conflict for many years.
2. A few countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, and Kuwait) are blessed with huge petroleum reserves. Some of the world’s biggest oil producers and exporters are in the NENA region.
3. The majority of the countries in the region are poor.

Causes of unhealthy and poor diets

Most people in poverty around the world live on the land, dependent on animal farming and agriculture for their survival. Agricultural farming practices in the region are traditional. NENA is a food-deficient region and faces rampant undernourishment.

Undernourishment and food insecurity

The NENA countries’ data on undernourishment and food insecurity have been collected and published by the FAO. The average for undernourishment from 2015 to 2017 was 11 percent. Severe food security in the population was estimated at 11.3 percent. The comparative figures for the developing countries are estimated at 12.8 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively. The situation in the world’s least developed countries remains dire. The undernourishment data was 24.2 percent. (https://www.fao.org/3/ca3817en/ca3817en.pdf)

As is seen in other parts of the world, poverty in the NENA region is concentrated in rural areas. The situation is further exacerbated by gender inequity.

The causes of unhealthy and poor diets in the region are attributed to:

1. Low purchasing power.
2. Ecological factors

Low GDP and purchasing power impacting NENA Food security

Healthy people are the cornerstone for the development of any region. Food and nutrition are essential inputs for having healthy people. The NENA region is chronically in food deficit. The area is characterized by low GDP and per capita incomes outside the oil-producing countries. Low purchasing power due to low incomes leads to food insecurity and poor health outcomes across the NENA region.

Table 1

GDP and per capita income

Source: World Bank; Worldometers.info; FAO, UN ITC Trademap Database

Ecological factors

NENA is located in the arid region of the world, characterized by vast deserts. Ecologically, NENA will fall within the arid zone, characterized by low water availability and frequent droughts.

The NENA countries are stretched along the Mediterranean Sea. As we move inland on the African continent, we enter the depths of the Sahara Desert, and beyond lies the tropical region. The geography, latitude, climate, soil, and groundwater directly impact a region’s ability to produce its food.

The Nena Countries

The NENA region is largely arid. Some areas adjoining the Mediterranean and the North Atlantic Ocean, represented in brown, have warm-temperate climates with warm, dry summers.

Much of the region has a very short growing period, as indicated by the 0.60 days represented by the yellow color. There is a sliver of sub-humid land along the seacoast. It is this part of these countries that produces the most food. The cultivation period here is fairly long. It ranges from 180 to 270 days.

Source JRC Africa Soil Atlas- Soil moisture map

Most of the NENA countries have low soil moisture. It is an arid land. Cultivation is only possible with irrigation. The territory has extended periods during which the soil moisture is very low.

The land along the coast is agronomically speaking better. Most cultivation in the region is dryland supported with irrigation. These soils can be wet in winter but are dry in summer.

Source: JRC Africa Ground Water Map

The groundwater situation in the NENA region is quite interesting. The areas of the Sahara desert, have groundwater located below 250 meters below ground level (mbgl). Extensive reserves of groundwater are available here. However, the exploitation of this groundwater has serious technical and environmental concerns. There are a few areas that have groundwater between 100-and 250 meters, while the regions adjoining the sea have groundwater that can be easily harvested. The water is available at depts from 7 meters to 100 meters.

Even though Egypt has the Nile river, which is among the largest rivers in the world, the region faces a shortage of surface water. Much of the surface water is used for drinking.

It is a region with a severe water deficit. The renewable water resources per capita are the lowest in the world. FAO data shows that the region is using all the available renewable water. The water is being consumed primarily for irrigation. The region has adopted modern agronomic practices to increase agricultural productivity. Still, the region faces food deficits, with demand far outstripping supply.

Source: FAO

The ecology of the region has turned the NENA region into food importers. The top five African food importers account for 50 percent of total imports into the region. The biggest importers are Egypt (15 percent), Algeria (12 percent), South Africa (9 percent), Morocco (7 percent), and Nigeria (7 percent). (https://www.tralac.org/documents/publications/trade-data-analysis/962-africa-food-trade-overview-september-2017/file.html)

Health outcomes for the people of the region are linked to food security. The region’s food balance projections indicate that dependence on imports will increase by almost 64 percent over the next twenty years. Severe undernourishment is observed in around 11 percent of the region’s people.

Socio-Economic drivers for poor dietary status

According to UNICEF, nine out of ten children in the Middle East and North Africa live in high water stress regions. It has serious consequences on health, nutrition, cognitive development, and future livelihoods. It is the most water-scarce region in the world. Nearly 66 million people in the region lack basic sanitation.

Food scarcity is rampant, with nearly two-thirds of the population receiving subsidized bread. The region has a history of high domestic inflation and protests. Food handouts have become a lifeline to the poor. Bread alone does not make for a healthy diet.

According to Global Nutrition Report.org, North African nutrition figures are worrying. It reports that

• 1 percent of women of reproductive age are affected by anemia
• 2 percent of infants have a low weight at birth
• 13 percent of children are overweight
• 4 percent stunting is lower than the global average of 22 percent
• 6 percent wasting is seen, which is below the global average of 6.7 percent
• Malnutrition burden is an average of 17.9 percent in adults (Aged 18 and over)

These statistics indicate that the nutrition support programs of governments are not giving the desired results.

Egypt, for instance, provides vitamin and mineral supplements to mothers and children, and iodized salt is made available in addition to subsidies on bread and oil.

The nutrition support program of the government is not giving the desired results.

Lessons from overseas

Many regions of the world provide cash to the poor. The people choose and invest that cash in food or other necessities. Direct cash transfers for the poor in the region are being debated, but no decision appears to have been taken.

Direct nutrition support activities like soup kitchens, offering nutritious cooked food at subsidized rates, mid-day meals, and others listed above have been successfully implemented. Such programs are hugely popular in India.

Philanthropic groups run soup kitchens across many major cities in the U.S. These kitchens are patronized by the homeless and the poor. Food stamps and food vouchers, too, have been experimented with by many developed nations.

The extent to which a country can extend food support will vary from country to country. You cannot have one size fit all solution. It is best to let each country design its food subsidy and support programs depending on the social, economic, financial, and other conditions prevailing in the country.

Europe has a strong welfare support system in place. The tradeoff is slow growth. The NENA region is still developing. It has to be careful. Going too far on the social welfare spectrum could trap the region into an endless cycle of low growth and poverty.

Lessons from developing countries

India

Agriculture is the largest source of livelihood for most people in this large country with a population of 1.3 billion people. Seventy percent of rural households are dependent on agriculture. The majority of these (82 percent) are poor, with very small holdings of under five acres. In the initial years after independence in 1947, the country faced regular famines, huge food distress, massive imports, and hugely stressed national balance sheets.

In 2017-18 the country estimated food production was 275 million tons. India is the largest producer comprising twenty-five percent of global production. The annual milk production was 165 million tons (2017-18). It is the largest producer of milk globally, the second-largest producer of rice, wheat, sugarcane, cotton, and grounds, and the second-largest fruit and vegetable producer. 10.9 percent of the world’s fruit production takes place in the country, and 8.6 percent of vegetables are produced there.

Despite these achievements, the country still accounts for a quarter of the world’s hungry people. It is home to over 190 million undernourished people. Its poverty incidence is pegged at 30 percent. As per the Global Nutrition Report (2016), India ranks 114^th out of the 132 countries.

India’s spectacular advancements in agricultural production have been achieved by resorting to resource-intensive, cereal-centric, regionally biased production strategies. Fast-growing, high-yielding cereal crops that required a lot of fertilizers and intensive irrigation were deployed.

Subsidies for inputs like free electricity, cheap seed and fertilizer, and support prices at which the state could purchase cereals were key features of this strategy. These strategies have resulted in the accumulation of vast stocks of wheat and rice in government godowns and excessive pumping of groundwater, causing its massive depletion.

The problem of nutritional deficiency and poverty continues to endure. Poverty reduction has occurred, but the pace of decline is not comparable to the growth in food availability.

Kenya

Agriculture contributes 26 percent of the country’s GDP, with another 27 percent of GDP indirectly through linkages with other sectors. (FAO). The sector employs forty percent of the total population and more than seventy percent of rural people of the country. Sixty-five percent of the export earnings of the country come from agriculture. Thirty-six and a half percent of people are food insecure, and thirty-five percent of children under five are chronically malnourished.

The country relies more on imports of fishery products (23.3 percent) and vegetable items. (16.7 percent). (Statistica). In 2018, the food production index for Kenya was 109.5, rising from 23.8 in 1969. The index covers food crops that are considered edible and contain nutrients. Coffee and tea are excluded. The rising population threatens the food security scenario in Kenya.

FAO’s vision is “a Kenya free from hunger and malnutrition, where food and agriculture help improve the living standards of all, especially the poorest, in an economically, socially and environmentally sustainable manner.”

In continuation of this vision, the Kenya United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) has set out a transformative plan for the country. The components of this plan are:

1. Transformative governance for an empowered nation
2. Equitable social and human capital development for a healthy nation
3. Inclusive and sustainable growth for a productive nation

The development program for the country is divided into four subprograms:

1. Developing an enabling policy and investment environment
2. Strengthening inclusive value chains
3. Increasing resilient food and livelihood systems
4. Improving governance of natural resources

Policy Responses to the food crisis

NENA is a food deficit region. The 2015-2017 average for undernourishment in select NENA countries stood at 11 percent. Egypt is the biggest food importer, followed by Algeria.

With an average per capita income of around $4000 per annum, people do not have the means to buy food. Governments are left with no options but to provide food subsidies. The food subsidy system is now the mainstay of maintaining social harmony and political stability in Egypt. (Ahmed. A.U. et al., 2002). The situation is similar in the rest of the region. Countries are meeting their need for food through imports.

According to mei.edu, the price of cereals in September 2021, particularly soft wheat, rose by 27.3 percent over the previous year. Imports of wheat were coming from Russia, Ukraine, and the region. With the area engulfed in war, the prices have substantially hardened. The subsidy bill for governments has significantly risen.

According to Reuters, the food subsidy program in Egypt currently costs the government about $5.5billion. The basic price of a subsidized basic loaf has remained constant at $0.003 since the1980s. Egypt is spending $5.6 billion to subsidize supply commodities and support farmers.

Consequences of policy responses impacting NENA Food Security

Food security can be improved through a series of tradeoffs. Some options discussed below may not be socio-economically feasible today. The cost of imported grain is probably lower than producing it by deploying technologies to increase food production. The situation, though, could change in time. NENA countries should prepare themselves with these options.

Climate modeling indicates that precipitation in North Africa is likely to decrease between 10 and 20 percent. At the same time, temperatures are likely to rise between two and three degrees Celsius by 2050. The recommendation is to move to agriculture output stabilization from output maximization. (Schilling J et al., 2012)

The non-oil-producing NENA countries have very limited exports. Egypt’s annual import bill stood at $83.9 billion. Its exports were only $35.2 billion. It left the country with a yawning trade balance of $48.7billion. (https://commodity.com/data/egypt/)

Food is one of the biggest imports into this food-deficit region. The demand for food is rising and essential. The average GDP of Egypt is around 5 percent, and its inflation is observed to range between 5 to 9 percent.

In the face of rising food exports essential for public welfare, low GDP, and high inflation, the role of tariffs in increasing food supply is very limited.

A similar situation exists in the rest of the NENA countries. Suppose import tariffs on food were cut to zero, as some free-market economists would recommend. In that case, it may lead to improved supply.

The bottleneck for the NENA region is the poor purchasing power of the people. High imports will make food available to the rich, with the poor unable to buy it. The trade imbalance will worsen.

The government may respond with further food subsidies. That will lead to more deficits. The region will then be faced with financial bankruptcy, uncontrolled inflation, and chaos.

Options, recommendations, and tradeoffs

NENA countries need to act urgently to improve food security, promote a healthy diet and alleviate food distress.

Some suggestions to offset future vulnerability to price shocks shared in U.N. agency reports include:

1. Strengthen safety nets, and provide people with better access to family planning services
2. Promote education
3. Enhance domestic production and improved livelihoods through increased investments and better outcomes from research and development.
4. Improve supply chain efficiency
5. Use financial instruments to hedge risk.

The oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia and others use part of their wealth to import food and ensure better health outcomes for their population. The poorer NENA countries do not generate adequate financial surpluses to import food.

These countries have implemented recommendations made by international experts. Projections indicate that the food deficits will only widen in the future despite this. The agronomic, soil, and water conservation recommendations are unlikely to increase food production dramatically.

The region is using nearly all the available water for agricultural production. The specter of global warming and climate change is ringing alarm bells. The world could move to a situation where food surplus generating countries may not have enough surpluses for export. The situation calls for innovation, and the adoption of disruptive solutions will help the region produce more food.

Direct cash transfers to the poor and increasing the price of bread are some of the options being debated in Egypt and the region at large. Supplementing the diet of this section of society is a health imperative. Fresh food subsidies are difficult to implement because of the challenges in storage and distribution.

Some nutritional supplementation efforts implemented in India, the USA and other countries could be explored. These include:

1. Providing mid-day cooked nutritious meals to children in schools
2. Running soup kitchens which private-sector agencies and government fund.
3. Offering cooked healthy meals at highly subsidized rates to all citizens irrespective of their status.
4. Iron, calcium, and other mineral supplementation are provided to lactating mothers.
5. Flour fortified with minerals and supplements is now available on store shelves in many countries. While the middle class could buy them straight off the shelf, the poor could procure these items against food vouchers or food stamps issued by the government.
6. Subsidized flour and pulses are offered to the poor.

The choice of intervention will vary from country to country. The government and the country’s ways and means position is an important determinant of the size of nutritional subsidy that any government could offer.

These are difficult decisions. No government wants to see bread riots on the streets. Allocating more resources for food subsidies is the current exercised option. But there are limits to which any government can extend assistance.

The NENA region countries are taking steps to import as much food to bridge the food deficit as their balance sheets permit. Direct food supply to the most vulnerable sections is one of the interventions deployed to alleviate distress.

Arab countries import at least 50 percent of the food calories they consume. As the largest net importers of cereal, Arab countries are more exposed to severe swings in agricultural commodity prices. The vulnerability is exacerbated by strong population growth, low agricultural productivity, and dependence on global commodities markets.

The NENA countries are characterized by severe water deficit, rising food demand, high malnourishment rates, and limited opportunities for increasing food production. These countries have stressed national balance sheets outside of the oil-producing NENA economies. It limits the ability of these countries to bridge the food deficit with imports.

The option is to increase domestic production and reduce the import bill. It will lead to healthier national balance sheets making it possible for governments to invest in healthy diet support programs.

Strategies for producing more food

Farmers are getting advice from multinational and national experts on agronomic practices. Still, the deficit of food and water is not projected to get bridged. The countries appear to have limited tradeoffs to bridge the deficit.

The option is innovative solutions. Vertical, cellular, and precision agriculture are technologies that make it possible for food to be produced year-round. In NENA, where the growing season is short, experimental farms to test these technologies in the context of the region could be explored. These technologies are energy-intensive. Solar power that can be abundantly produced in the NENA region could be the power source for such experimental farms.

Technological solutions that will help dramatically increase food production are available. Climate change projections indicate that the world could turn food deficit in the future. Countries in the NENA region will have no option but to deploy the technological solutions discussed above and produce their food. The transition will be costly. Preparations to build experimental farms that will act as demonstration, training, and research centers are a good option for NENA policymakers.

As noted by Schilling J et al., 2012, climate shock for the region will be huge. The solutions to providing food security and providing people in the area with a healthy diet will not lie in more distributive policies. The problem of food deficit and availability cannot be solved by offering more subsidies. Disruptive technologies will be the answer to the problem.

The oil-producing countries use revenue surpluses from fossil fuel sales to subsidize and import all the food they need. The non-OPEC countries like Egypt, Algeria, and others do not generate the surpluses essential to buy the grain from the global market.

Investment in renewables

The NENA region is a water deficit, but it is rich in solar energy. Solar power is cost-competitive in India, where solar power plants are coming up in scale. Producing solar energy on a scale is a tradeoff available to the region. Unlike India, where there is a ready market for this power available, NENA countries do not have the absorptive capacity to put this power to productive use.

However, as battery technology evolves or green hydrogen technologies improve, it is an option that could become techno economically feasible. If that happens, the future of NENA countries as producers of surplus power has the potential to turn the national balance sheets from deficit to surplus.

Disruptive technology for farming

Climate-controlled farm production has transformed food production in areas where unconventional farming has been adopted. Agriculture, as we see it today, will dramatically change. Climate change challenges will be nothing the world has seen so far.

Another major limitation of the NENA region is the scarcity of water. Technologies that can recycle wastewater following domestic, municipal, and industrial use are now available. Power required to filter and distill water can be produced in solar plants. These technologies have been extensively applied successfully in various water deficit regions of the world. There is a substantial body of research literature available on the subject.

The U.S. water policy includes a wide variety of uses for recycled water. Recycled water use includes reuse in urban, domestic, and agriculture. It is used for food and non-food crops, industrial and environmental purposes, impoundment, and groundwater recharging. The degree of treatment of wastewater is dependent on its end-use. Extensive treatment and disinfection are done to ensure public health and the protection of environmental quality. McNabb, D.E. (2017) Similar conclusions were reached in an Australian use case (Seshadri, B. et al., 2015)

Nontraditional water sources, including reclaimed or recycled water, have become a desirable option to meet increasing demands in the water-stressed region. Considerable research work on the subject has been done in the Southwest U.S. The willingness to use recycled water is influenced by the farm size, level of education, and concern over water availability. Water managers and planners will have to examine options for policymaking, taking into account social, cultural, public health, and economic factors. (Dery, J.L. et al., 2019)

The Thessaly region of Greece is a water deficit region. Recycled water is used for the irrigation of crops. A survey of farmers in the area revealed that 57.9 percent of farmers were willing to pay for reclaimed water if it costs half the price of freshwater. (Bakopoulou, S et al., 2010) A similar study to understand the willingness to use and willingness to pay for recycled water in agriculture was done in Crete. Irrigation of olive and tomato crops with recycled water is being done here. The study shows that the willingness to pay for recycled water came to 88 percent of its current market price. Environmental awareness, economic facts, such as freshwater prices, and incomes influence the attitude of both farmers and consumers towards recycled water irrigated crops. Similar results were noted in surveys conducted in Nestos catchment. (Menagki, A.N. et al., 2007; Lazaridou, D. et al., 2019; Higgins, J. et al., 2002)

Recycled water provides a viable opportunity to supplement water supplies. The conclusion was reached after studying the use of recycled water in regions of Australia, Asia, The U.S., Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The study reveals good prospects for further expansion and exploration of integrated water planning and management of recycled water reuse in water deficit regions. (Chen,Z., et al., 2013; Gerba, C.P., et al, 2017; Phogat, V., et al., 2020; Weber, E., et al., 2014)

Summary

Policy decision-making in the NENA region will have to consider farmers’ and consumers’ willingness to consume and pay for the use of recycled wastewater. Technology for wastewater recycling is available in the world. It is the feasibility of large-scale deployment that has to be studied.

State budgets will not have the capacity to deploy these technologies on the scale required. The private sector will have to be attracted to invest in the recycling business. It will happen when economic feasibility has been shown in the initial set of state-funded farms. The WHO-FAO-UNEP has issued detailed guidelines for the use of recycled wastewater.

NENA is a water deficit region. The bulk of the region is desert.

• The techno-economic feasibility of tapping the water reservoir under the Sahara desert is a challenge. Even if that is resolved, this water is a non-renewable resource that will be lost forever once depleted.
• Re-cycling of wastewater is another option. However, the cost of recycled water is much more than surface and groundwater. Governments will have to invest in subsidizing agriculture irrigated with recycled wastewater. Israel has successfully converted a water-deficit region into a water surplus. The tradeoff for NENA governments lies between subsidizing agriculture done with recycled wastewater and providing direct food subsidies as is being done today.
• The NENA region has an extended coastline. Photovoltaic energy can be used to desalinate seawater to produce freshwater is another option. (Al-Karaghouli et al., 2010). As photovoltaics costs drop and fossil fuels become more and more expensive, desalination of seawater and producing freshwater is another tradeoff available to the NENA countries.
• The solution to malnutrition and improving the nutritional health of the NENA population lies in making national balance sheets better. That will only happen when the region’s countries can produce enough food domestically and at costs that people can afford. The specter of climate change will make food imports more and more costly in the future. Distributive policies and more subsidy is not the answer. The NENA countries cannot afford these.

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